Mexico’s steel industry faces a contraction of up to 300,000 tonnes in orders towards the United States due to uncertainty and the imposition of a 25% tariff on steel.
According to Víctor Cairo, president of the National Chamber of the Iron and Steel Industry (Canacero), “Definitely there is a contraction because your clients in the U.S. say: ‘I don’t want to pay the 25%!’, but neither do you. Demand for Mexican planos tubulares has dropped, although some took the initiative to export before the tariffs, even exceeding their usual exports. However, there is a contraction with too much uncertainty.”
Cairo also mentioned that steel prices have increased in the U.S., rising from $650 per metric tonne to $1,000—over 50% more.
Guillermo Vogel, former Canacero president, confirmed that steel prices have risen due to the U.S. tariff, placing Mexico in an “uncertain” situation. If the U.S. buys cheaper steel from Mexico (at Mexican prices), it could be subject to dumping charges and face reciprocal tariffs.
This measure is still being analyzed with Claudia Sheinbaum’s government as the 25% tariff applies to all steel-importing countries to the U.S.
Mexico currently exports 3.2 million tonnes of steel to the U.S., while the U.S. sends 4.2 million tonnes to Mexico. However, Canacero data shows that 300,000 tonnes of steel will no longer be exported due to the 25% tariff.
Cairo explained that steel costs are affected by various factors, including raw material prices. In the U.S., the price fell to a low of $650 per metric tonne and now sells for $1,000—a $350 increase.
The 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imposed by the U.S. is not just against Mexico but also against the entire world, potentially limiting supply or increasing costs, said Vogel. “We are already seeing significant price increases in EU steel,” he added.
Guillermo Vogel, Tenaris board vice president, explained that steelmakers cannot absorb tariff costs because they could lead to dumping issues—where importing from Mexico at Mexican prices is considered dumping. This could provide Mexico with defense mechanisms for potential reciprocal tariffs.
He stressed, “We are in such an uncertain moment where process dynamics keep changing… we work closely with the government to ensure our industry remains protected.”
