This week, key economic data will be released for both Mexico and the US, including employment, automotive industry, inflation, trade balance, international tourism, and industrial activity. Additionally, minutes from the latest meetings of the Federal Reserve and Banco de México (Banxico) will be published.
Monday, April 7: Employment
- IMSS-affiliated job positions (March)
- Light Vehicle Industry’s administrative registration (March)
The week begins with the release of Mexico’s formal employment data by the Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS). This indicator measures formal employment, distinguishing between permanent and temporary positions across key economic sectors. Released monthly, it provides insights into labor dynamics and job growth.
Meanwhile, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) publishes light vehicle industry administrative registration data. These monthly figures offer valuable information on industrial dynamism and consumer activity in Mexico. High production and export numbers often indicate strong external demand. This report becomes more significant in a context of protective trade policies.
Tuesday, April 8: Government Bond Auction
- Government bond auction results
On Tuesday, Banxico releases the results of the government bond auction. This report provides crucial information about the demand for public debt and market expectations regarding interest rates and economic stability.
Wednesday, April 9: Inflation
- Mexico’s National Consumer Price Index (March)
- Revised Mexican Trade Balance of Goods (February)
- Federal Reserve policy meeting minutes
- OPEC crude oil inventories
Midweek, Mexico’s March inflation data will be released, a key indicator for anticipating Banco de México’s stance. Published by Inegi, a slowdown would reinforce expectations of further rate cuts following recent substantial reductions.
Meanwhile, market participants await the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting minutes, offering insights into debates among Committee on Open Market Operations members. The data will reveal how close rate cuts are and members’ perceptions of variables like inflation, labor market conditions, and economic growth in the US.
Additionally, the American Petroleum Institute (API) crude oil inventory report will be released weekly by the Administration of Information Energy. It provides information on petroleum supply and demand, potentially influencing oil prices.
Thursday, April 10: Banxico Minutes
- Banxico policy meeting minutes
- Preliminary International Visitor Survey (February)
- Monthly Manufacturing Activity Index (February)
- US Consumer Price Index (March)
- New US unemployment benefit claims
Thursday brings Banxico’s policy meeting minutes, revealing details of discussions on their recent rate cut. Besides the 50-basis point reduction to 9%, comments on inflation risks are crucial, particularly in a volatile global context.
Furthermore, the International Visitor Survey will be published, offering insights into Mexico’s inbound tourism status, with data on foreign visitors and their spending. This guides some tourism policies to stimulate economic growth and inform investment decisions.
US inflation data is another significant release this week. Crucial for the Federal Reserve, persistent inflation—especially in its underlying component—could worry investors, especially after President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements threatening to increase pressures.
Weekly, new US unemployment benefit claims will also be reported. The figure indicates the number of people seeking government jobless aid for the first time. Published by the Department of Labor, it serves as a labor market thermometer, helping identify unexpected changes that may affect the largest economy.
Friday, April 11: Producer Prices in the US
- US Producer Price Index (March)
- UK GDP (March)
The week concludes without major releases from Mexico, but with the key US Producer Price Index. Measuring prices received by producers for their goods and services, it acts as an early inflation pressure signal. Sustained increases may forecast higher consumer inflation, influencing Fed expectations.
Additionally, the UK’s monthly GDP data will be released, more relevant this time due to global recession fears amid trade tensions. Its reading impacts growth projections and Bank of England decisions, moving currency markets and perceptions of European economic resilience.
