The projected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate for 2025, ranging from 1.5% to 2.3%, presented in the preliminary economic policy criteria by Mexico’s Ministry of Finance, appears optimistic despite growing trade uncertainties, according to Banamex.
Iván Arias, Director of Economic Studies at Banamex, highlighted that while the document acknowledges some external risks, the growth projections seem distant from those of other organizations and private analysts, including Banamex’s own forecast of 0.0% growth.
Arias’ Concerns on Trade Tariffs
Speaking at a panel commemorating the 100th anniversary of Banamex’s economic studies department, Arias emphasized that reaching a 1.5% growth rate under current conditions is challenging, especially considering high uncertainty for the remainder of the year.
He pointed out that these projections do not consider potential effects from tariffs that President Donald Trump might ratify this Wednesday.
Potential Negative Impact Due to Trade Tariffs
Arias noted a clear increase in trade uncertainty, with a higher likelihood of tariffs being imposed on certain sectors and products. This could push the current 0.0% growth scenario towards a potential PIB decline this year.
He argued that the probability of such a shift increases given the expected announcements from Trump.
Fiscal Considerations
Regarding public finances, Arias considered the preliminary estimates reasonable.
Arias stressed the importance of restoring confidence, not only due to Trump’s policy but also from institutional agendas at local levels, as a measure that could mitigate tariff impacts.
