The recent uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariffs has led to significant drops in global stock markets, potentially affecting workers’ retirement savings in Mexican pension funds (Afores).
In April 2025, the U.S. stock market fell by up to 12%, while the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV) dropped 4%.
Investment Impact
Afores invest workers’ savings in financial instruments like stocks, making them vulnerable to market fluctuations. As of February 2025, 19% of Afore portfolios were invested in Mexican and international stock markets, according to data from the National Commission for the Saving System for Retirement (Consar).
Potential Losses in April
Jacobo Rodríguez, an expert at Roga Capital, predicts that Afores could start showing losses due to market declines caused by Trump’s trade policies, possibly as early as April 2025.
“The impact from the tariffs on the Mexican stock markets is only just starting to be seen in these first days of April. Thus, we might not observe negative results in Afores until this month,” said Rodríguez.
Moderate Effects Anticipated
Rolando Silva, another pension expert, notes that Afores’ investment strategy is generally conservative, with over half of their portfolios in Mexican government debt, less directly tied to stock market performance.
While temporary losses are possible, they might be moderate due to the diversified nature of Afore investments. Long-term investments may mitigate immediate impacts on future pensions.
Trump’s Tariff Rationale
On April 9, 2025, President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs of up to 90% on all trading partners to reduce U.S. trade deficits.
These and similar counter-tariffs from other countries like China or Europe have heightened market uncertainty, potentially slowing economic growth and triggering inflationary pressures.
