According to the Precriterios 2026 delivered by Mexico’s Secretariat of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) to the Chamber of Deputies, the country’s public debt is projected to reach nearly 20 trillion pesos by 2026.
Highest Recorded Level
This represents the highest recorded level of public debt in Mexico. By that year, each Mexican citizen would owe approximately 149,000 pesos just for being a citizen.
The SHRFSP (Saldo Histórico de los Requerimientos Financieros del Sector Público), which encompasses the entire public sector (not only the federal government but also entities like Pemex and development banks, will reach 19.96 trillion pesos, equating to 52.3% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Growth Compared to 2018
This figure marks a significant increase from 2018 when AMLO and his party, Morena, took office. The debt in real terms has risen by 36% since then.
Ricardo Cantú, Director of Debt and Income at the Center for Economic and Budgetary Research (CIEP), explained that the SHRFSP reflects the financial situation of the entire public sector over time. It is the cumulative sum of all debt contracted by various public entities.
Stable as a Percentage of GDP
The SHCP projects that the debt-to-GDP ratio will remain unchanged at 52.3% in 2026, similar to the current level.
To achieve this, the projected public debt as a percentage of GDP for 2026 is set between 3.2 and 3.5%, down from the estimated range of 3.9-4.0% for 2025.
However, Cantú from the CIEP believes these projections might be overly optimistic due to uncertainties, particularly the trade threat from Donald Trump in the U.S., which could hinder economic growth as projected.
The rising public debt figures highlighted in the Precriterios underscore the urgent need for Mexico to debate a fiscal reform to manage and reduce this debt, as current control measures are insufficient.
