The presidential announcement on Thursday has raised alarms in the pharmaceutical industry. Starting from 2026, only companies with production plants in Mexico will be allowed to sell to the Mexican government. The measure aims to create jobs and attract investment but its haste and lack of depth could turn it into a greater risk.
Background of the Proposal
This is not an improvised idea. Since 2019, when Claudia Sheinbaum was the head of government, discussions about production sovereignty in healthcare have been ongoing. Encouraging domestic production is commendable, but the decree, expected next week, faces a global reality: the pharmaceutical industry has evolved.
Challenges of the Proposal
Plants are now located based on technical and logistical conditions, not political will. Mexico, with its challenges in energy, water, customs, and legal certainty, is not ready for such demands.
- Timing Issue: Forcing multinationals to open plants within 12 months is unfeasible. These decisions typically take 3-5 years after thorough analysis.
- Impact on Medicines: The measure does not differentiate types of medications. It could force companies dealing with rare diseases, which operate with just one or two global plants, to abandon the Mexican market, leaving patients without options.
- Dependence on Asian Companies: The government hopes Asian companies (India, Taiwan, China) will see an opportunity to export to the US via Mexico. However, in a trade environment marked by uncertainty with the USMCA, this seems more like a dream than a plan.
- COFEPRIS Concerns: Despite promises to streamline procedures, there’s no guarantee COFEPRIS can meet these demands. If companies don’t comply and the government insists, shortages will occur, leading to international purchases at higher costs.
Recommendations for a Pragmatic Approach
Rather than forcing the industry, incentivizing investments through subsidies or public-private partnerships would be more effective. Mexico has advantages (location, labor), but resolving bottlenecks like customs and energy is crucial for attracting corporate investment.
The Need for Listening and Planning
The “second floor” of the 4T should listen to industry professionals and patients before publishing this decree. Imposing plants in an unprepared country won’t magically create jobs; it could instead weaken the healthcare system.
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